Colress's Experiment
| ebay.fr | n=2 | $7.02 | +93% |
| ebay.es | n=28 | $4.93 | +36% |
| ebay.co.uk | n=28 | $4.91 | +35% |
| ebay.de | n=24 | $4.08 | +12% |
| ebay.com | n=43 | $3.81 | +5% |
| ebay.nl | n=2 | $3.64 | — |
How is this value calculated?
Recency-weighted trimmed median of 64 NM sales (RAW; outliers trimmed against the median, newer sales weigh more, dynamic half-life).
| Evidence path | Sales | Age | Value vᵢ | Weight gᵢ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| eigene rohe NM-Verkäufe | 66 | 37 d | $4.05 | 538.78 |
| eigene PSA9-Verkäufe ÷ 2.5272 | 3 | 3 mo | $9.65 | 0.47 |
| eigene PSA10-Verkäufe ÷ 9.9159 | 3 | 4 mo | $3.28 | 0.2 |
| de roh NM × 1.017 (Sprach-Faktor aus 104 Karten) | 4 | 39 d | $6.77 | 2.1 |
Measured error for this era×language (backtest): ±17 %
| Evidence path | Sales | Age | Value vᵢ | Weight gᵢ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| eigene rohe NM-Verkäufe | 4 | 39 d | $6.65 | 32.65 |
| en roh NM × 0.9832 (Sprach-Faktor aus 104 Karten) | 66 | 37 d | $3.98 | 2.35 |
Measured error for this era×language (backtest): ±22 %
| Evidence path | Sales | Age | Value vᵢ | Weight gᵢ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| de roh NM × 1.5254 (Sprach-Faktor aus 45 Karten) | 4 | 39 d | $10.15 | 0.93 |
| en roh NM × 1.2745 (Sprach-Faktor aus 48 Karten) | 66 | 37 d | $5.16 | 0.64 |
Measured error for this era×language (backtest): ±20 %
Gate not green — shown only here, never as the price.
| Evidence path | Sales | Age | Value vᵢ | Weight gᵢ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| en roh NM × 1.2681 (Sprach-Faktor aus 33 Karten) | 66 | 37 d | $5.14 | 3.51 |
| de roh NM × 1.1973 (Sprach-Faktor aus 30 Karten) | 4 | 39 d | $7.96 | 1.76 |
Measured error for this era×language (backtest): ±18 %
No PSA numbers for this print yet — in any language.
Frequently asked questions
Is it worth grading Colress's Experiment Lost Origin 205/196?
A PSA 10 currently sells for about $32.46, raw the card sits at $4.07 — 8,0× as much. Of 375 copies already graded, 44 % received a 10 and 38 % a 9. Mathematically, submitting returns $29.33 on average, before fees and shipping. Rule of thumb: submit when the value at a realistic grade is at least double the raw value — which is the case here. Centering decides it: an off-centre card will not get a 10. The grade distribution comes from the PSA Population Report; people pre-sort before submitting, so your own hit rate may differ.
Auction or Buy It Now — which gets more for Colress's Experiment Lost Origin 205/196?
Across 15 auctions the median was $2.59, across 66 fixed-price sales $4.91. Fixed price therefore fetched about 89 % more — for this card patience with a set price is the better route.
What will I get for Colress's Experiment Lost Origin 205/196 if I want to sell quickly?
Half of all sales fell between $3.69 and $5.58, with a median of $4.40. Selling fast lands you nearer the lower end; with patience, good photos and a complete title the upper end is achievable.
Below which price is an offer for Colress's Experiment Lost Origin 205/196 unrealistic?
The cheapest genuine sales were around $2.58. Offers well below $1.55 are typically fakes, mislabelled cards or a different variant — ask for photos of all four borders and a close-up of the surface.
How does lastsold determine the market value?
lastsold uses only real sales — eBay plus auction houses like Goldin & Fanatics — recent sales count more (recency weighting), outliers and fakes are removed. It's not an estimate but actual sold prices, separated by condition, language and grading.
#120 ·
#GG59 ·